Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 30.242788 33.710908 37.694475 42.677474 48.846511 56.380104 66.522768
2025-06-08 25.078515 29.354466 34.708657 42.137493 52.602878 67.605077 92.567157
2025-06-15 21.762451 26.353629 32.470159 41.660338 56.084053 80.097761 130.472843
2025-06-22 19.484347 24.206940 30.806997 41.387815 59.637811 94.757376 191.000127
2025-06-29 17.590873 22.256403 29.006952 40.372159 61.515283 107.735812 276.227312
2025-07-06 16.828100 21.766678 29.224858 42.596265 70.178327 143.413661 623.809722
2025-07-13 15.666160 20.529986 28.066642 42.118515 73.152071 168.349414 1401.430033
2025-07-20 14.836734 19.695017 27.418909 42.410988 78.049989 208.102321 11421.407666
2025-07-27 14.145984 18.996950 26.891686 42.803352 83.469947 263.628304 NaN
2025-08-03 13.473554 18.261134 26.200200 42.703897 87.596080 328.250399 NaN
2025-08-10 12.809328 17.481517 25.340268 42.072663 89.925960 395.238206 NaN
2025-08-17 12.323591 16.954066 24.873101 42.220445 95.001448 527.073976 NaN
2025-08-24 11.815566 16.360471 24.238578 41.906615 98.601101 697.886317 NaN
2025-08-31 11.323168 15.760983 23.538461 41.323573 101.055628 922.106464 NaN
2025-09-07 10.886419 15.228373 22.917856 40.834965 103.803800 1296.360100 NaN
2025-09-14 10.510918 14.777436 22.414566 40.559260 107.501738 2091.244235 NaN
2025-09-21 10.092469 14.229043 21.678001 39.571339 107.474466 2941.474392 NaN
2025-09-28 10.016470 14.269741 22.101860 41.719357 125.037034 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.699596 13.867313 21.600824 41.256453 128.272424 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.471176 13.609938 21.375189 41.538560 136.609473 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 9.265709 13.382396 21.192264 41.917424 146.408589 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 9.034923 13.097386 20.867131 41.821217 153.083308 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 8.778539 12.754373 20.396182 41.211178 155.428856 NaN NaN